I see it as a balance between
-colony numbers (population needed to stay warm, and patrol the hive)
-quantity of reserves (hive weight)
-how well the box is insulated.
We have really wild temp variations here in the TV, insulation will help improve a colony's efficiency (the less temp loss the less energy required by the bees to maintain, thus less stores and population needed to over-winter) It is easier and more economic for the bees to cool a hot hive than it is to heat a cold hive.
A weak colony with lots of stores can/will get robbed out (in dearth until the weather gets enough cold they don't fly.).
An opposite angle of that, not enough space and they are more inclined to swarm.
Don't look at water content of 1:1 they treat this as incoming nectar and make space to dry it out (build comb). As the nectar dries out it does not displace so much space, then the bees consolidate it and cap it.
I have read the the bees will collect condensate in the lower part of the hive and mix that with honey for feeding.
So as long as there is no puddling or condensate dripping on brood, I don't see that as a problem. Many inner covers are made from thin material that sags when it gets wet (and drips on the center of the hive). The condensation comes from a cold un-insulated top cover. Insulating the top cover will reduce the temp differential and in turn help prevent the condensation.